The Big 12 has had a rough go of things the past few weeks. Seemingly out of nowhere, unless you paid even the remotest bit of attention since 2016, Texas and Oklahoma announced plans to bolt for the SEC. Then, as if it hadn't been clear to the rest of the college sports world for decades, the rest of the Big 12 membership realized it was in trouble.
The hope of some schools was that they would get poached by a league like the Pac-12. Unfortunately for the Oklahoma States and Texas Techs of the world, the Pac-12 just made it clear that none of them bring enough value to warrant adding them to the league.
The western-most autonomy conference released this statement on Thursday:
Following consultation with our Presidents, Chancellors and Athletic Directors, the Pac-12 Conference has made the decision to not pursue expansion of our membership at this time. This decision was made following extensive internal discussion and analysis, and is based on the current competitive strength and cohesiveness of our 12 universities. It is also grounded in our confidence in our ability as a conference to best support our student-athletes and to grow and thrive both academically and athletically.
- Pac-12 Conference Statement
While dreams of playing in the Pac-12 have been dashed for the likes of Baylor and TCU (not like they had a chance to begin with), the good news is that the Big 12 might have enough time to add some replacements and stabilize. That means adding schools that the Big 12 already shunned once.
The likely candidates are always the same. Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, USF, Houston, SMU, Boise State, and BYU are in the mix and being mentioned. Schools like Temple and Tulane are hoping their academics can gain a little traction, but the reality is that no one is tuning into ESPN for math competitions on Saturdays in the Fall. The Big 12 doesn't have the foresight of a Big Ten either. Don't expect a "Rutgers-like" decision here. The Big 12 is hoping to exist four years from now. It can't focus on trying to build up athletic brands during that time.
So, what do we know for sure now? The Pac-12 isn't expanding, Dave Wannstedt is as good a rumor source as he was a football coach at Pitt (worthless), and the Big 12 leftovers don't add any value to the other autonomy conferences.
The Pac-12 is safe. It has the Rose Bowl, a solid and long-lasting partnership with the Big Ten, and its geography guarantees the Pac-12 will exist in some form on the West Coast. No one is poaching USC, UCLA, Stanford, [...].
Schools like Cincinnati and UCF would have tripped over themselves to join the Big 12 in 2016. But much like the rest of the world, a lot has changed in the last five years. No one views the Big 12 as a "power conference" without Texas and Oklahoma. The Longhorns and Sooners knew this; it's why they left.
With exit fees, rebranding, travel and transitional costs - is it worth it for anyone to join a conference that might not exist in five years? ESPN has made it clear it values the product The American puts out and could try to keep the AAC intact. Do you think there is still enough shine on the Big 12 logo to convince prospective replacements the conference is even worth joining? Please let us know in the comments below.
